“There is a huge change in the Israeli public opinion,” he adds, suggesting that the election represents not merely another contest for parliamentary power but a broader judgment on Netanyahu’s leadership.

Speaking against the backdrop of a deadly attack near Hebron and the prospect of further Israeli military operations in the occupied West Bank, Yemini questions whether escalation would offer any meaningful political advantage: “I’m not sure that this is something which is going to happen, because politically it’s not something that will help anybody.”

Yet his analysis also underscores the complexities of Israel‘s parliamentary system. Although opinion polls point towards Netanyahu’s declining popularity, Yemini cautions that electoral outcomes depend less on the prime minister’s personal standing than on the capacity of his political bloc to command a governing majority. Historical precedents, he notes, demonstrate Netanyahu’s ability to overcome highly unfavourable polling.

And he concludes with a striking reflection on Donald Trump‘s endorsement of Netanyahu. Recalling Netanyahu’s own claims that all of the previous American presidents opposed him while he nevertheless prevailed, Yemini offers an ironic inversion: “Now there is someone who recommends that he will win, so maybe this is the time that he is going to be defeated.”

His closing assessment is unusually direct. Netanyahu’s defeat, he suggests, would be “for the benefit of Israel.”